The Kremlin's history lesson

His interview this week in Vedomosti, in defence of "authoritarian modernisation", was a bold riposte to the liberal manifesto put forward by Igor Yurgens' Institute for Contemporary Development, a think tank linked to President Dmitry Medvedev.

While Yurgens called for democratisation to kick-start economic modernisation, including the return of elections for governors, Surkov argued that such measures - including the creation of a Russian Silicon Valley - could only be carried out in a top-down, authoritarian way, adding: "Modernisation is never free."

He also defended the state corporations, which Medvedev has vowed to reform or privatise, and called for unity between society and business in an apparent appeal to avoid squabbling over the redistribution of assets ahead of the 2012 elections.

Surkov's choice of imagery - referring to Russia's economy as "an old armoured train without a locomotive" that "is about to stop completely" - does not look accidental. For those unfamiliar with Soviet history (and jokes), this recalls two strong images: Bolshevik leader Lev Trotsky's armoured train in the Civil War, in which he hurtled from one front to another, rallying the Red Army troops; and the late Soviet-era joke about Communist leaders on a train that has stopped: Stalin threatens to shoot the driver, while Brezhnev suggests closing the curtains and pretending they are moving.

Surkov likely had a Machiavellian lesson for his colleagues here: for the Putin-Medvedev tandem to keep a firm grip on power, modernisation requires that the ruling group close ranks and not encourage dissent.

And for those who would risk too much democratisation, the hint seems to be: remember the fate of Trotsky and the Old Bolsheviks who rocked the boat during Stalin's "authoritarian modernisation" in the 1920s and 30s. The message today is less authoritarian, but simply that dissenters can also find themselves out of power.